Beat the Books FREE MLB Pick of the Day: August 17, 2018

Tonight’s Beat the Books Free Pick of the Day features the struggling Houston Astros as they travel to Oakland to play the red hot Athletics at 10:05pm Eastern. Charlie Morton takes the hill for the Astros and Edwin Jackson is on the bump for the Athletics.

The Astros are the favorite at -140 whereas the home underdog A’s are +120.  The total for tonight’s game is eight runs.

Starting Pitching

The Astros are 14-9 when Morton starts and 6-4 when he starts on the road. Morton has a road ERA of 2.73 and road xFIP of 3.70. Morton walks 4.25 batters on the road and and allows less than one home run per nine innings pitched. Morton has allowed just a wOBA of .294 and strikes out 28 percent of the hitters he’s faced in 59.1 innings on the road.

The Athletics are 7-2 when Jackson starts and 3-1 in games when he starts at home. Jackson  has a home ERA of 1.80 and a much larger xFIP of 4.52. Jackson also has a 1.80 walk rate and home run rate of 1.44 per nine innings pitched. Road teams facing Jackson have a .235 wOBA and strikeout rate of 21.5 percent during Jackson’s 25 innings pitched at home.

 

Offenses

The Astros offense has struggled over the past 30 days. They have a .180 ISO, .310 wOBA and wRC+ of 98. In 2311 plate appearances on the road this season Houston boasts a .190 ISO, .343 wOBA and wRC+ of 117. Astros hitters also have a 19.7 percent strikeout rate and nine percent walk rate.

Over the past 30 days Oakland has been one of the best offenses in baseball. The boast a .208 ISO, .345 wOBA and wRC+ of 121. In 2200 plate appearances at home this season Oakland hitters have a .157 ISO, .301 wOBA and wRC+ of 92. A’s hitters have a 22 percent strikeout rate and 8.9 percent walk rate.

 

Bullpens

Jackson doesn’t pitch a lot of innings and his bullpen doesn’t appear to be as fresh as Morton’s does. I think we must give the edge here to Houston.

 

Pick

Take Oakland on the money line tonight!!!

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