FREE Look: Tuesday MLB Premium Picks

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FREE Tuesday Baseball in September. Last week we went 9-3 in our MLB predictions. That excites Flash as September baseball is probably the most difficult to handicap. Giving this post away for free today also excites Flash. We trudge on and today we have some Tuesday opportunities to explore.

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All times Eastern Standard Time

Time Game Pitchers Favorite Total Pick
10:10 PM Rockies vs Dodgers Freeland vs Kershaw Dodgers -200 7 Runs Rockies +195
8:05 PM Rays vs Rangers Snell vs Gallardo Rays -200 9.5 Over 9.5 Runs
8:10 PM Seattle vs Houston Leake vs James Houston -175 8.5 Runs Over 8.5 Runs
7:05 PM Toronto vs Baltimore Sanchez vs Bundy Toronto -110 9 Runs Toronto

 

 

Flashes Game Notes

When we look at the above grid I’m sure you asked yourself “how the fuck am I going to make any money with these lines”? Amirite?

Rockies vs Dodgers

The Dodgers won game one of this important three game series and now has a half game lead over the Rockies.

Over the past 30 days Kershaw has been a bit better than Freeland, but not by much. The Rockies have won the past eight Freeland starts and nine of his 14 road starts this season. Freeland has a 4.31 road xFIP. Dodger bats have a wRC+ of 100 against left handed pitching and a wRC+ of 108 at home this season.

Los Angeles has won six of the past eight Kershaw starts and six of his 12 home starts this season. Kershaw sports a 2.93 home xFIP this season. Rockies bats rank #2 in baseball this season against left handed pitching with a wRC+ of 108 and rank #25 on the road with a wRC+ of 80.

I don’t expect a bunch of runs tonight so bullpens are going to matter. Over the past 14 days Rockies relief pitchers have zero blown saves, eight holds and an ERA of 2.09 over 47.1 innings pitched. The Dodgers have blown zero saves, seven holds and an ERA of 2.53 over 42.2 innings pitched.

 

Rays vs Rangers

The Rays won game one of this series 3-0. They have won three games in a row and eight of their last 10. The Rangers have lost seven of their past ten games and two in a row.

Tampa Bay leads the season series 3-1.

The Rays are heavily favored here and for good reason. Blake Snell is all that is advertised and much more. Snell has allowed eight earned runs over his last 45 innings pitched. The Rays have won seven of those eight games and have won nine of his 15 road starts this season.

The Rangers have lost three of the past five Gallardo starts and have won seven of the eight Gallardo home starts this season. Gallardo has allowed 30 earned runs over the past 35 innings pitched. Gallardo has a home xFIP of 4.95 in 45 innings pitched.

Over the past 14 days the Rays have been crushing the ball with a wRC+ of 122. The Rays offense has a wRC+ of 104 this season against right handed pitching and a wRC+ of 97  as the away team this season.

Ranger bats have a wRC+ of 70 over the last two weeks and a wRC+ of 90 this season against left handed pitching. Ranger bats are ranked #5 this season at home with a wRC+ of 100.

Over the last 14 days the Rays bullpen has blown just one of their six save opportunities, nine holds and an ERA of 3.05 over 73.2 innings pitched. The Rangers bullpen has blown one of their past four save opportunities, ten holds with an ERA of 4.97 ERA over their last 54.1 innings pitched.

Seattle vs Houston

Seattle beat Houston last night and has won one game in a row and five of their past ten. The Astros are on a one game losing streak and have won seven of their past ten games.

Seattle leads the season series 8-7.

Leake has allowed just one earned run over the past 13 innings pitched and the Mariners have won three of his last five starts and 10 of the 15 Leake road starts this season. Leake has a 4.05 road xFIP in 92.1 innings pitched this season.

This is just James second start of the season and the Astros have won all three James appearances. James has allowed five earned runs in his 10.2 innings pitched this season and allowed three earned runs over five innings pitched in his only home start and appearance. That’s all I really know about this kid.

Over the past 14 days Mariners bats rank #20 with a wRC+ of 97. This season the Mariners offense ranks #20 with a wRC+ of 102 and rank #8 on the road with a wRC+ of 103.

Over the past two weeks Astros bats are ranked #7 in baseball with a wRC+ of 115. This season the Astros rank #11 against right handed pitching with a wRC+ of 106 and rank #14 at home with a wRC+ of 108.

Over the past 14 days the Mariners bullpen has blown one of their five save opportunities, five holds with an ERA of 2.20 over 45 innings pitched. The Astros bullpen has blown two of their nine save opportunities, 14 holds with an ERA of 3.99 in 38.1 innings pitched.

 

Toronto vs Baltimore

Toronto has won three in a row and five of their last ten. Baltimore is on a one game losing streak and has won just two of their past 10 games.

Toronto leads the season series 13-4.

The Jays have won three of the past five Sanchez starts and four of his eight road starts this season. One of those road starts was against the Orioles back on April 10th. Sanchez has allowed 17 earned runs over the past 22 innings pitched and has a 5.14 road xFIP over 47 innings pitched.

The Orioles have won one of the past five Bundy starts and six of his 15 home starts this season. Bundy has allowed 22 earned runs over the last 26.1 innings pitched and has a home xFIP of 4.44 that is much lower than his 5.57 home ERA suggesting some positive regression might be in store. Encouraging but the reality is Bundy has allowed 14 earned runs in 16 innings pitched against this Blue Jays offense.

Over the past 14 days the Blue Jays offense ranks #19 with a wRC+ of 95. This season the Jays rank #8 against right handed pitching and #15 on the road with a wRC+ of 96.

The Orioles offense over the past 14 days ranks #26 with a wRC+ of 69. This season the Orioles rank #25 against right handed pitching and #20 at home with a wRC+ of 96.

Over the past 14 days the Jays bullpen has blown one of its four save opportunities,  four holds and an ERA of 4.68 over 42.1 innings pitched. Baltimore’s bullpen hasn’t blown any saves, has five holds and an ERA of 4.70 over their past 59.1 innings pitched.

 

Games Flash likes that he didn’t have time to write up……..

 

Time Game Pitchers Favorite Total Pick
7:05 PM Mets vs Phillies Matz vs Nola Nola -190 7 Runs Over 7 Runs
7:10 PM Nationals vs Marlins Strasburg vs Alcantara Strasburg -190 7.5 Runs Over 7.5 Runs
10:15 PM Angels vs Oakland Skaggs vs Hendriks Hendriks -140 8.5 Runs Over 8.5 Runs

 

 

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