Baseball: MLB Premium Baseball Picks for 9-11-2018

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Baseball is all we have on Tuesday but yesterday’s success has Flash up early this morning. He’s excited because he is looking forward to a BIGGER day on Tuesday.

Cleveland Indians -110 vs Tampa Bay Rays -110

7:10 PM

Shane Bieber vs Tyler Glasnow

Total 8 Runs

1st Five Innings Total 4.5 Runs

Pick: Indians

 

Flashes Game Notes

The Indians have lost two in a row including game one of this three game series. They have also lost six of their past ten games. Tampa Bay has won four games in a row and eight of their past ten games.

The Indians have won four of the past five Bieber starts and eight out of his ten road starts this season. Bieber has allowed 17 earned runs over his past 27.2 innings pitched. Four of those runs came against this same Rays offense and was the only game the Indians lost during that five game span. Bieber has a road xFIP of 3.51; that road xFIP is about one point lower than his road ERA.

The Rays have lost four of the past five Glasnow starts including one week ago against this same Cleveland. The Rays have won all three Glasnow starts at home. Glasnow has allowed 16 earned runs over the past 24.1 innings pitched with seven of those earned runs coming in his last start. Glasnow has a solid 3.10 home xFIP that is lower than his home ERA.

Over the past two weeks the Indians rank #9 in offense with a wRC+ of 104. This season the Tribe offense ranks #10 against right handed pitching and #16 on the road.

The Rays are the #1 ranked offense over the past 14 days with a whopping wRC+ of 137. This season the Rays offense ranks #20 against right handed pitching and #10 home offense.

Over the past 14 days the Indians bullpen has blown two of their six save opportunities, have 12 holds and a team ERA of 3.40. The Rays bullpen hasn’t blown any saves over the past 14 days, five holds and a team ERA of 3.55.

 

Atlanta Braves -140 vs San Francisco Giants +120

10:15 PM

Mike Foltynewicz vs Andrew Suarez

Total 7.5 Runs

1st Five Innings Total 4 Runs

Pick: Braves

 

Flashes Game Notes

The Braves have won three straight and six of their past ten games including game one of this three game series. The Giants have lost nine straight and nine of their last ten games. The Giants have been outscored 44-30 during the past 10 games.

The Braves have won one of the past five Foltynewicz starts and six of his 13 road starts this season. Foltynewicz has allowed seven earned runs over the past 33 innings pitched and has a road xFIP of 4.02. His road ERA is 2.71 so maybe some regression is in his future?

The Giants have won three of the past five Suarez starts and six of his past 12 home starts this season. Suarez has allowed 10 earned runs over the past 28.2 innings pitched and has a home xFIP of 3.38.

Over the past two weeks the Braves offense ranks #5 and has a wRC+ of 115. This season the Braves rank #2 against left handed pitching and #4 road offense with a wRC+ of 111.

Over the past two weeks the Giants rank #30 in offense with a wRC+ of 60. This season the Giants rank #27 against right handed pitching and #21 at home with a wRC+ of 101.

During the past 14 days Braves relievers have blown five of their past nine save opportunities, have 10 holds and an ERA of 3.91. Giants’ bullpen has two blown saves, two holds and an ERA of 4.13.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates +125 vs St Louis Cardinals -145

8:15 PM

Joe Musgrove vs Miles Mikolas

Total 8 Runs

1st Five Innings Total 4 Runs

Pick: Cardinals

 

Flashes Game Notes

The Pirates are on a one game losing streak and have won six of their past ten games. The Cardinals have won two straight and five of their past ten games. The Cardinals lead the season series 9-7.

The Pirates have won two of the past five Musgrove starts and two of the seven Musgrove road starts. Musgrove has allowed 15 earned runs over his last 29.1 innings pitched. Musgrove has a road xFIP of 3.92.

St Louis has won four of the past five Mikolas starts and nine of the 13 Mikolas home starts this season. Mikolas has allowed 15 earned runs over his last 29.1 innings pitched and has a home xFIP of 3.55. That xFIP is over one point higher than his home ERA of 2.31. Could mean some regression is in store?

Over the past 14 days the Pirates offense ranks #23 with a wRC+ of 89. This season the Pirates rank #14 against right handed pitching and #10 road offense in 2018.

Cardinal hitters are ranked #20 over the past 14 days with a wRC+ of 95. This season the Cardinals rank #16 against right handed pitching and #24 at home in 2018.

During the past 14 days the Pirates bullpen ranks #9 blowing two of their six save opportunities, 10 holds and an ERA of 3.41. The Cardinals bullpen has blown one of their six save opportunities, have 11 holds and an ERA of 4.63.

 

Milwaukee Brewers +120 vs Chicago Cubs -140

8:05 PM

Jhoulys Chacin vs Jose Quintana

Total 8.5 Runs

1st Five Innings Total 4.5 Runs

Pick Cubs

 

Flashes Game Notes

The Brewers have won four games in a row and eight of their past ten. The Cubs have lost three in a row and six of their past ten games.

Milwaukee has won three of the past five Chacin starts and 12 of the 18 Chacin road starts this season. The Brewers are 2-1 against Chicago when Chacin starts. Chacin has allowed seven earned runs over the past 30 innings including three earned runs in 4.1 innings to these very Cubs one week ago. Chacin has a road xFIP of 4.58 and that’s a bit higher than his 3.44 road ERA suggesting regression is on the way.

Chicago has lost three of the past five Quintana starts and have won eight of the eleven Quintana home starts. Chicago is 3-1 against the Brewers when Quintana starts. Quintana has allowed 11 earned runs over the past 27.2 innings pitched with seven of those earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched against this Brewers team. Quintana has a 4.15 xFIP which is lower than his 4.88 ERA which means Quintana has been a bit unlucky at Wrigley Field this season.

Over the past 14 days the Brewers have the #3 ranked offense in baseball and boast a wRC+ of 118. This season the Brewers have the #9 ranked home offense and #16 with a wRC+ of 96 against left handed pitching.

Chicago has the #24 ranked offense over the past 14 days with a wRC+ of 84. The Cubs have the #3 ranked offense this season against right handed pitching and #4 ranked offense with a wRC+ of 116 at Wrigley Field in 2018.

Over the past 14 days the Brewers bullpen has blown three of their nine save opportunities, have 13 holds and a 3.31 ERA. The Cubs bullpen has blown two of their five save opportunities, have seven holds and an ERA of 4.73.

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