Baseball: MLB Premium Picks for Friday 9-14-2018

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Los Angeles Dodgers -130 vs St Louis Cardinals +120

8:15 PM

Walker Buehler vs Jack Flaherty

Total 8 Runs

1st Five Innings Total 4 Runs

Pick: Cardinals

 

Flashes Game Notes

The Dodgers have won two straight and five of their past ten games. The Cardinals have lost two in a row and five of their past ten games.

The Cardinals lead their season series 3-0.

The Dodgers have won three of the past five Buehler starts and five of the nine Buehler road starts this season. Buehler has allowed eight earned runs over the past 29.1 innings pitched and has a road xFIP of 3.44 compared to his road ERA of 4.07. That suggests Buehler has been a bit unlucky and possibly some positive regression is in store.

The Cardinals have won three of the past five Flaherty starts and six of the past ten Flaherty home starts this season. Flaherty has allowed six earned runs in his last 29 innings pitched and has a home xFIP of 3.38 which is in line with his home ERA of 2.88.

Over the past two weeks the Dodgers bats rank #6 with a wRC+ of 117. This season the Dodgers rank #2 against right handed pitching and #1 this season on the road with a wRC+ of 116.

The past 14 days Cardinals bats are ranked #16 with a 96 wRC+. This season the Cardinals rank #17 against right handed pitching and a #24 ranking and wRC+ of 96 at home this season.

Dodgers relievers rank #7 over the past 14 days. They have blown one of their five save opportunities, have seven holds and a 2.81 ERA to go along with a xFIP of 3.85. Maybe regression is heading the Dodgers way?

Over the past 14 days the Cardinals bullpen ranks #24. The boys in the pen have blown one of their five save opportunities and have eight holds. They also boast a 5.66 ERA and xFIP of 4.76 suggesting some positive regression might be in store soon.

 

Colorado Rockies -140 vs San Francisco Giants +126

10:15 PM

Tyler Anderson vs Chris Stratton

Total 7.5

1st Five Innings Total 4 Runs

Pick: Colorado

Flashes Game Notes

The Rockies have won two in a row and seven of their past ten. The Giants have lost 11 in a row.

The Rockies lead the season series 10-3.

The Rockies have won one of the past five Anderson starts and seven of the 13 Anderson road starts. Anderson has allowed 23 earned runs over the past 19.1 innings pitched. Nine of those earned runs came in a road start against the Houston Astros. Anderson has a road xFIP of 4.30 that blows away his 5.37 road ERA suggesting some positive regression might be in store.

The Giants have won one of the past five Stratton starts and has won seven of his 12 home starts this season. Stratton has allowed 14 earned runs over his last 28.1 innings pitched and this season sports a 4.38 home xFIP that is slightly lower than his 4.94 ERA.

Over the past 14 days the Rockies offense is ranked #1 in baseball with a wRC+ of 129. This season the Rockies rank #23 on the road and #15 with a 87 wRC+ against right handed pitching.

Giants bats rank #30 over the past 14 days with a wRC+ of 60. This season the Giants rank #21 at home and rank #24 against left handed pitching with a wRC+ of 89 this season.

Rockies relievers rank #14 over the past 14 days. Rockies relievers have blown one of their five save opportunities and have nine holds with a ERA of 3.80 and 3.53 xFIP.

The Giants bullpen ranks #21 over the past 14 days blowing both of their save opportunities. They have one hold, 4.68 ERA and 3.67 xFIP. The Giants bullpen might be better than some think.

 

Chicago White Sox -110 vs Baltimore Orioles +100

7:05 PM

James Shields vs Luis Ortiz

Total 9.5 Runs

1st Five Innings Total 5 Runs

Pick: Orioles

 Flashes Game Notes

The White Sox are on a one game winning streak and have won three of their past 10 games. The Orioles also have a one game winning streak and have won two of their past 10 games.

The season series is tied at two games apiece.

Chicago has won two of the past five Shields starts and two of the 14 Shields road starts this season. Shields has allowed 18 earned runs over his last 30.2 innings pitched. Shields has a 5.35 road xFIP that is slightly lower than his 5.89 road ERA.

Ortiz is making his first start and is making just his second appearance of the season. He allowed three earned runs in just .2 innings pitched and that game was on the road against the Rays.

White Sox bats rank #27 over the past 14 days with a 82 wRC+. This season the White Sox rank #22 on the road and #25 with a 95 wRC+ against right handed pitching this season.

Over the past 14 days the Orioles bats rank #29 with a 62 wRC+. This season Orioles bats rank #18 at home and #27 with a 89 wRC+ this season.

The White Sox bullpen ranks #5 over the past 14 days with zero blown saves and one hold. They have a 2.66 ERA and 3.24 xFIP.

The Orioles bullpen ranks #28 over the past 14 days blowing one of their three save opportunities. They do have four holds, an ERA of 6.20 and xFIP of 4.83. The Orioles might not have the best bullpen but it’s better than the results have shown.

 

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