NFL: Week Two NFL Premium Picks

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NFL Football!!! Week number two is right around the corner and even though last week was a bit rough, Flash is excited about beating the book this week!!

 

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers

1 PM

Favorite Pittsburgh -5.5

Total 53.5 Points

Pick: Pittsburgh -5.5

 

Flashes Game Notes

The Chiefs are coming off an impressive road win over the Chargers while the Steelers are coming off a taking your sister to the prom moment aka a tie at Cleveland.

Kansas City has a young QB with a strong arm and a ton of weapons at his disposal.

Pittsburgh has a veteran QB with a pretty strong arm and also has a ton of weapons surrounding him. Ben Roethlisberger may have a sore elbow and while Chiefs fans were hoping he would miss Sunday’s game, Big Ben is now listed as probable for Sunday.

The Chiefs defense allowed a League worst 541 total yards against the Chargers in San Diego. What probably saved their bacon was limiting the Chargers to just three third down conversions.

The Steelers defense allowed the Browns 327 total yards and just five third down conversions. Too many turnovers (5) by the offense and twelve penalties had more to do with the result against Cleveland than anything the Browns did.

That Chiefs defense can’t stop anyone and they probably won’t stop Pittsburgh Sunday either. If Pittsburgh takes better care of the ball they can score at will at home against this team.

 

 

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints

1:00 PM

Favorite Saints -9.0

Total 49 Points

Pick: Saints

Flashes Game Notes

The Browns are coming off a game in which they didn’t lose and the Saints are coming off what some are calling an embarrassing loss at home to the Buccaneers.

The Saints offense amassed 475 total yards against the Bucs last Sunday. Their defense gave it all back and then some allowing 529 total yards on just 62 plays from scrimmage.

The Browns defense allowed 472 total yards on 80 plays from scrimmage against the Steelers and their offense and their 327 total yards couldn’t compensate for it.

What we have here is a visiting Browns team who was handed a game at home and couldn’t close the deal against a team that handed over a game at home that their 475 total offensive yards couldn’t overcome.

It really is that simple here.

 

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars

4:25 PM

Favorite: Patriots -1

Total 45 Points

Pick: Jaguars

Flashes Game Notes

Because the Patriots don’t play defense they limited a very talented Houston Texan offense to just 324 total yards and just two third down conversions.

Jacksonville actually does play defense allowing 324 total yards to a talented but veteran New York Giants offense. That defense kept Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr and Eli Manning out of the end zone.

If Jags CB Jalen Ramsey has to deal with Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski will Brady and WR Chris Hogan be a thing?

To handicap this correctly we need to have answers to the following questions.

  1. Can the Jags defense keep Brady and Gronkowski out of the end zone?
  2. Jags RB Leonard Fournette is listed as questionable. If he misses this game how much can we depend on Blake Bortles and the rest of the offense to step up and win this big game at home.

Since we don’t have the answers to these questions I will stick with my hard and fast rule; always play the home underdog when getting three points or less.

 

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1:00 PM

Favorite Eagles -3 Points

Total: 44 Points

Pick: Tampa Bay

Flashes Game Notes

Before I begin I urge you to read this tremendous preview by Danny Podolsky.

Tampa Bay allowed the Saints just 43 rushing yards on the road last week. I understand game flow and all that but the Buc’s didn’t put the Saints into throw on all four downs mode until the fourth quarter.

I know it’s easy to just dismiss Buccaneers QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and say he got a bit lucky last week on the road and maybe you are correct. But look at his splits and tell me when and where Fitzpatrick excels the best before writing him off.

Fitzpatrick also has a 1-3-1 career record against the Eagles. Does that matter very much?

Last week the Eagles had to resort to some Doug Pederson razzle dazzle to get past the Falcons and they may need to resort to it again now that the Buccaneers have announced WR DeSean Jackson will suit up.

The Bucs have done a good job with their offensive line. They will need a big day from those fellas against an Eagles defensive line that sacked Matt Ryan four times in week one.

Foles is better on the road than at home so the Bucs need to keep him honest and the Bucs defensive line is the key to this. Especially considering the Eagles don’t have any big play type players.

 

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Redskins

1:00 PM

Favorite: Washington -6

Total: 48 Points

Pick: Redskins

 

 Flashes Game Notes

Andrew Luck is back and the Colts offense looked pretty good last week against the Bengals. Alex Smith is with a new team and looked like he’s been their QB for years.

I think this is going to be a fun game to watch on Sunday.

Washington has allowed the fewest yards this season (213). Indianapolis has allowed the 14th most total yards (330).

Indianapolis allowed 101 rushing yards last week against the Bengals. Their rushing defense will have their hands full with Chris Washington and Adrian Peterson. The two combined for around 165 rushing yards and a touchdown.

The Bengals sacked Luck six times last Sunday. Colts tackle Anthony Castonzo has been ruled out for Sunday’s game and that could be big trouble against a Redskins defense that sacked Sam Bradford twice.

The Redskins rushing defense has VASTLY improved and dominated Arizona last week. The Colts don’t have much in the way of rushing so I suspect if the Colts are going to stay in this one Luck will need to air it out a bunch on Sunday.

The Redskins offense isn’t spectacular but it is efficient. I think that’s all it needs to be on Sunday at home against the Colts.

 

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

1:00 PM

Favorite Jets -3

Total 43 Points

Pick: Jets -3

 Flashes Game Notes

The Jets looked like world beaters against the Lions on Monday night. The Dolphins looked okay against the Titans.

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill is back and had a QB Rating of 34.3. To me he is the same guy he’s always been. He’ll throw a couple TD’s and also toss a couple of bad interceptions. That’s what he did in Week One at home and I look for more of the same on Sunday.

Speaking of interceptions; the Jets intercepted Lions QB Matt Stafford five times taking one of those to the house. If it wasn’t a fluke or a setup this Jets defense is going to give Tannehill fits on Sunday.

Jets Rookie QB Sam Darnold had a nice debut and ended up with a QB Rating of 82.9 with just 198 yards, two TD’s, one interception and was sacked twice. Not a bad debut at all. Especially on the road. Now he gets to play these Dolphins at home.

The Jets backfield of Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell are a nice tandem. Both are big play backs. Week one Miami allowed the likes of Dion Lewis to run for 75 yards and a TD. This backfield is going to give the Dolphins fits.

I don’t have much confidence in the Dolphins secondary. In fact I’m not very high on the Dolphins defense at all. They were lucky they had to face Blaine Gabbert for half a football game.

Flash likes some other NFL Football games this week…….he just didn’t have time for his infamous “Flashes Game Notes”…….here they are.

Time Game Favorite Total Pick
1 PM Panthers vs Falcons Falcons -6 44 Falcons
1 PM Vikings vs Packers
1 PM Chargers vs Bills Chargers -7.5 43 Chargers
1 PM Texans vs Titans Texans -3 43.5 Titans
4:05 PM Cardinals vs Rams Rams -13.5 45 Rams
4:05 PM Lions vs 49ers 49ers -6 48.5 49ers
4:25 PM Raiders vs Broncos Broncos -6.5 46 Broncos
8:20 PM Giants vs Cowboys Dallas -3 42.5 Cowboys

 

 

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