Results from Wednesday August 15, 2018 MLB Premium Picks

Below are the results from Wednesday’s Premium Picks. Eight wins and six losses on a MLB slate means you should have made some Cash with the Flash. I will also be talking about this on Friday’s Beat the Books Podcast.


Teams Game Time Pitchers Pick Comments Result
White Sox @Tigers 1.10pm Carlos Rodon vs Jordan Zimmermann Over 8.5 We are looking for at least 9 runs based on both of these pitcher’s xFIP so playing the over in this mid-day game  makes the most sense to me. Winner
Pirates @Twins 1:10pm
Chris Archer
 vs Jose Berrios 
Pirates +110 Both pitchers have been solid over the past 30 days. The Pirates are a top 10 offenses against righties whereas the Twins are a bottom 20 offense. Loss
Brewers @Cubs 2:20pm Junior Guerra vs Kyle Hendricks Cubs -138 Over the past 30 days Hendricks has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Getting destroyed at home against this same Brewers team on Tuesday should give them added incentive to win this baseball game. Winner
Mariners @ Athletics 3:35pm Mike Leake vs Brett Anderson Mariners +120 Both Leake and Anderson have been solid over the past 30 days. Mariners are 8-3 when Leake takes the hill on the road. Over the past 30 days the Athletics have the second best offense in baseball. Mariners have a top 10 offense against left handers. Winner
Mets @ Orioles 7:05pm Zack Wheeler vs David Hess Mets -132 Over the past 30 days Zack Wheeler has been a top 20 pitcher with a xFIP under 4 runs per game. Over the past month the Orioles offense has been a top five offense while the Mets are merely middle of the road. Orioles SP David Hess has coughed up just over two bombs per nine innings pitched. Winner
Red Sox @ Phillies 7:05pm Nathan Eovaldi vs Vince Velasquez Phillies +117 The Phillies lost a heartbreaker in game one of their two game home series. They really need a win to stay close to the Braves. The Phillies are 7-5 when Velasquez starts at home. Eovaldi has been strong since being acquired by the Sox and are 3-0 when Eovaldi starts. Eovaldi has allowed five earned runs in 23.2 innings pitched. His 4.33 xFIP is a full point higher than his FIP which means negative regression might rear its ugly head sooner rather than later. Winner
Rays @ Yankees 7:05pm Jake Faria vs Luis Cessa  Over 9 Faria and his 5.33 xFIP against Cessa and his 4.58 xFIP seems like a recipe for a bunch of runs. Neither team has impressed with their bats in the second half of the season. Loss
Indians @ Reds 7:10pm Shane Bieber vs Robert Stephenson Over 9.5 Huge 9.5 total in this game and I don’t believe enough in the Reds to play them at +157. Even though the Tribe has won nine of their last 11 I won’t take the Indians at -170. So if we play the most likely thing will be more than 10 runs scored tonight. Loss
Marlins @ Braves 7:35pm
Jose Urena
 vs Kevin Gausman 
Under 8.5 Hard game to bet with the Braves at -240. The Marlins have dropped eight of their last 10 and are horrible on the road. Urena is actually not too shabby on the road with a 3.91 xFIP. The Braves are 1-1 when Gausman takes the hill and has a nice 2.60 xFIP at home. Winner
Rockies @ Astros 8:10pm Tyler Anderson vs Gerrit Cole Rockies +167 The Rockies have won four straight and look for a sweep of their two game series with the Astros. The Rockies clobbered Justin Verlander on Tuesday and face Gerrit Cole Wednesday night. The Astros are 8-3 when Cole starts at home. The Rockies are 7-5 when Anderson starts on the road. It’s tough to sweep a series and especially hard to do so on the road but the Rockies are on fire, the Astros are struggling and the Rockies are worth taking  shot on Wednesday. Loss
Blue Jays @ Royals 8:15pm Marco Estrada vs Burch Smith Jays -140 The Jays are 5-5 when Estrada pitches on the road. That 5.85 road xFIP would scare me away against anyone else but the Royals offense has a hard time scoring runs. Royals starter Smith is coughing up nearly two HR’s per game and I can’t not see the Jays clobbering him today. Winner
Nationals @ Cardinals 8:15pm Jeremy Hellickson vs Austin Gomber Nats +100 The Cardinals have won seven straight and nine of ten including two in a row over the Nationals. The Nats are mired in a three game losing streak. The Nats are just 6-6 when Hellickson starts on the road. Gomber has been good but seems to have more trouble with lefties than right handed bats. I feel the Nats get back on track tonight. Loss
Angels @ Padres 9:10pm
Felix Pena
 vs Robbie Erlin 
Padres -119 The Angels have won two straight and look to sweep the Padres in their own yard. Erlin has been fantastic at home this season. Pena has been solid but not so much on the road. I’m liking the Padres tonight a LOT. Loss
Giants @ Dodgers 10:10pm
Derek Holland
 vs Hyun-Jin Ryu 
Under 8 Rhu has been spectacular since returning from the DL whereas the Giants are 6-9 when Holland starts on the road. The Dodgers have dropped five in a row and look to keep the Giants from giving them the broom at home. Winner